Charles Pelkey’s bicycle safety article in the VeloNews makes this claim:
Getting a precise breakdown of the actual risks per mile is a bit more difficult, but a rough analysis of 2005 fatalities would suggest that riders are between three and 10 times more likely to die per mile traveled than are drivers.
Sounds scary.
I prefer my figures a bit more precise. That’s why I often refer people to this article examining bicycle safety. And to this listing of surveys and studies. All of this material is worth your time to consider carefully. (Sadly, Ken Kifer, the author of “Is Cycling Dangerous?”, was killed by a drunk driver in 2003.)
One thing is clear to me, however, from the preponderance of studies and surveys that I have seen: You’re more likely to die in a bicycle crash with and automobile under these circumstances:
- you are a teenager or younger
- you are riding at night without lights or reflective gear
- you are failing to follow traffic laws
- you are riding in inappropriate places (e.g. a sidewalk)
Here’s what Ken Kifer said about lifetime risk:
Whichever set of figures we use, we discover a very low danger from cycling. Let’s say the a cyclist rides 250 hours per year, say 3,000 miles, somewhat higher than the amount for a regular cyclist. And we’ll say that this person rides 60 out of the normal 75 years of life, or 15,000 hours and 180,000 miles total. Using the Failure Associates figures, this person is going to have to have a 1/256 chance of getting killed while cycling during his lifetime. Using The Environmental Benefits of Cycling and Walking figures and using the mileage data from 1997, the cyclists has a 1/142 chance of getting killed while cycling during a lifetime. Using the Johns Hopkins figures, we can suppose our cyclist makes 250 bike trips a year for those 60 years; that’s 15,000 trips. Then he has a 1/133 chance of dying with his bike shoes on. Compare these with the lifetime risk of dying in a motor vehicle of 1/60 and 1/83, which I calculated above.
However, these figures assume that this cyclist is no safer than any other cyclist. In truth, anyone who rides this much is going to have to acquire real cycling and traffic skills; it’s the children and the child-like riders who are more likely to bite the dust.
I’m happy to take my chances on a bicycle. It makes me healthier and happier. And it’s good for my community. The rewards easily outweigh the risks.
What are the rewards of driving that make it worth the risk?
Comments 4
Well said. And it can’t be understated that the majority of cyclists in this country ride in ways that invite conflict.
I don’t ride on the sidewalk, I don’t hug the curb, I make myself visible, especially approaching intersections, I ride with the flow, I never pass trucks on the right, I don’t ride in the door zone, I obey traffic controls, I use lights at night…
I think my risk is way lower than that of the average cyclist average.
Posted 28 Jan 2010 at 2:50 pm ¶Fine, but people are being driven by the same phenomena that has hand sanitizer everywhere you go. THAT is the real problem even if cycling had no risk at all. Groundless and irrational fear. It’s real. When I drive to work, nobody tells me to “drive safe” when I leave. When they see a CAR wreck, nobody wonders if it’s me. Even my wife doesn’t get concerned if I’m a bit late in the Land Rover. The Traffic 101 course was as much for her benefit as mine.
Posted 28 Jan 2010 at 5:57 pm ¶I have to agree. I think when a writer like me gets mired in the specific details of individual accidents involving injury and fatalities we run the risk of focusing solely on the dangers of cycling and forget to mention the extraordinary benefits. I, too, have read Ken’s page and I have to agree with the conclusions.
Ken, of course, was killed by a drunk driver while riding his bicycle, but the analysis of the numbers still hold.
My background is not that of a traffic engineer. I tend to look at these things like a journalist and a lawyer. Maybe that’s a problem, in that we tend to emphasize the problems, rather than the 1000s of riders who enjoy the roads responsibly and safely.
Please feel free to contact me any time you want to weigh in on anything I’ve written. I’m happy to hear you out … and even steal your ideas and comments.
All the best,
Posted 03 Feb 2010 at 4:21 am ¶Charles
Charles… Thanks for dropping by Carbon Trace! I’m always interested in examining safety issues because they play such a big role in keeping bicycling numbers low in the U.S.
Posted 04 Feb 2010 at 8:06 am ¶